Significant advances in methane emissions measurement and monitoring have brought greater visibility to oil and gas methane emissions in recent years.  Now, as more data becomes available, accelerating emission reductions increasingly hinges on strengthening incentives among buyers and sellers along the supply chain to factor methane leakage into their market decisions.

Thanks to advances in voluntary emissions reporting, independent certification standards like MiQ, and demand-side policies, especially the EU methane regulations, a market for differentiated gas is starting to emerge. Yet the supply of demonstrably low-leakage gas is far outstripping demand. Leading corporate buyers can seize the opportunity to substantially reduce their emissions footprints by purchasing low-leakage gas with limited supply constraints.

Pennsylvania and its surrounding states are a microcosm of these dynamics and have the potential to spur wider market differentiation. Home to extensive low-methane gas supply and numerous would-be buyers across sectors, the “Pennsylvania Plus” (Penn+) region has the potential to become a hub for differentiated gas. But this can only happen if buyers are well-informed about the opportunity, can credibly and confidently report the emissions benefit of purchasing low-methane leakage gas, and can pull this emissions-reduction lever at a comparatively low cost. Overcoming these barriers — whether perceived or real — is eminently achievable in the near term.

An enabling ecosystem for differentiated gas markets

A healthy differentiated gas market requires a) sufficient supply and demand for differentiated gas, b) a well-developed regional gas market, and c) a regulatory environment that supports reducing methane leakage. With the exception of demand for low-methane leakage gas today, the Penn+ region has all of these ingredients.

Beginning with low-methane leakage gas supply, this region, which encompasses both the Marcellus and Utica basins, represents nearly one-third of US gas production and one-fifth of US gas consumption. Additionally, half the gas produced is already certified below 0.2 percent methane intensity through MiQ.

The region’s gas market is well developed. It has extensive pipeline connectivity and storage, enabling supply to meet demand across the region and throughout the year. There is also sufficient flexibility and liquidity to support transparent contracting and pricing. The Penn+ region overlaps with PJM — one of the largest wholesale power markets in the world — and NYISO, another large market, with gas often setting the market-clearing price.

The Penn+ region’s regulatory environment not only supports the functioning of gas and power markets, but it also includes broader incentives for climate action. For example, some of the region’s subnational governments have plans that include emissions reduction targets, providing incentives for operators to cut emissions across their supply chains. Additionally, many states in the region are part of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), a market-based program to reduce power plant emissions using a cap-and-trade system. RGGI sets a precedent for the development of other climate-differentiated markets in the region. Though not currently part of RGGI, Pennsylvania is considering a state-specific alternative.

Finally, there is a diversity of potential buyers. Power sector utilities are often the first type of customer that comes to mind, but the region also possesses a wide array of industrial buyers — including steel, glass, and chemicals and oil refining plants alongside emerging demand from data centers. The existing liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal at Cove Point is an international outlet for gas, which ties Penn+ directly to import requirements under the EU methane regulations, and other initiatives like the Coalition for LNG Emission Abatement towards Net-zero (CLEAN).

How to Spur Buyer Demand

If reducing methane leakage is a win-win-win for energy efficiency, energy security and the climate, why have buyers not taken advantage of this big opportunity? The first obstacle is awareness. Many buyers are not sufficiently informed of the impact methane leakage has on their supply-chain emissions and still may not have heard of emissions-differentiated gas. Even when buyers are cognizant of the opportunity in theory, putting it into practice raises additional uncertainties — including how to credibly report the benefit of purchasing low-methane leakage gas to their end users and in disclosures. Finally, cost is often cited as a barrier. Any price above the lowest cost source of gas can be seen as too expensive, especially if benefits cannot be clearly reported.

Luckily, each of these barriers can be overcome in the near term. Awareness among buyers on the importance of methane leakage in supply chains, like chemicals and power supply, has accelerated in recent years as more information becomes available. As their understanding has grown, buyers are demonstrating the ways in which differentiated gas can be accounted for in Scope 3 inventories and annual reporting. For example, Bloom Energy was able to quantify the difference in emissions from its differentiated-gas purchases compared to the national average using the MiQ-Highwood Index. Finally, the cost premium for differentiated gas is minimal — and cutting methane waste is one of the most cost-effective forms of emissions abatement available across the board.

Now is the time to act

Certified supply already exists in the Penn+ region, and costs are low, especially relative to the climate benefit. Now is the time for gas buyers to prioritize low-leakage gas and help catalyze methane mitigation across the supply chain. They can take a combination of the following actions:

1. Committing to only purchasing low-methane leakage gas by no later than 2030.

1. Piloting transactions of low-methane leakage gas in the next 12 months.

1. Engaging with supply-chain stakeholders to identify key barriers to purchasing low-methane leakage gas and co-develop effective solutions.
2. Advocating for the inclusion of methane leak reduction targets and accurate differentiated claims mechanisms across standards, organizational goals, and other accountability systems.

Direct gas buyers are not the only ones who can act. All companies producing or selling goods and services can cut their embodied methane emissions. They, too, should seize this opportunity to minimize their overall climate risks, especially as Scope 3 reporting gains momentum. As buyer adoption grows, regional gas suppliers that have not yet certified their production will have even more of a reason to get on board and demonstrate their methane performance. Complementing evolving regulations with a strong differentiated gas market can provide a win-win solution for gas producers, gas consumers, communities, and the climate.

RMI is currently working with gas buyers and producers to achieve these goals. Any private or public organization interested in discussing how differentiated gas markets can be leveraged to achieve emissions reduction goals can reach out to Joe Fallurin (jfallurin@rmi.org) to discuss potential collaboration opportunities.

This article was made possible with support from Bloomberg Philanthropies. The article reflects the views of the authors and not necessarily those of the supporting organizations.

The post Pennsylvania: The Keystone State for an Emissions-Differentiated Gas Market appeared first on RMI.

As methane — a greenhouse gas over 80 times more potent than CO₂ in the short term — continues to rise on the climate agenda, cities and countries are increasingly seeking ways to tackle methane from waste. WasteMAP equips decision makers with tools and strategies to accelerate methane mitigation in alignment with broader national climate goals. Our latest updates make it easier to quantify, simulate, and drive actions on methane emissions at the individual site level.

Join us for a live demonstration during our upcoming webinar on July 10th.

What’s new on WasteMAP

1. Site-Level Decision Support Tool (SDST)

Following the successful release of the City-Level Decision Support Tool (CDST) at COP 28 in 2023, we’re now introducing the Site-Level Decision Support Tool (SDST). This new feature enables users to estimate how operational changes at specific waste disposal sites — landfills or dumpsites — can mitigate methane emissions.

With SDST, users can:

• Input site-specific data, such as incoming waste amount and waste composition
• Estimate baseline methane emissions of the disposal sites
• Simulate various interventions, including:
  • Installation of gas collection and control systems (GCCS)
  • Use of biocovers
  • Enhancing gas capture and flaring efficiency
  • Closure of dumpsites or landfills

Case Study: Olusosun dumpsite decommissioning – Lagos, Nigeria

As a member of the LOW-M (Lowering Organic Waste Methane) initiative, Lagos has committed to decommissioning five major dumpsites, including Olusosun dumpsite, the largest in the country. RMI’s WasteMAP team has collaborated with Lagos Waste Management Authority (LAWMA) to advance its methane emissions reduction goals by identifying regulatory barriers, providing policy recommendations, fostering peer-to-peer learning among waste officials, and promoting waste management best practices.

As shown in Exhibit 1, WasteMAP’s SDST allows us to estimate the significant methane reduction potential of decommissioning the Olusosun dumpsite, one of the largest in the region. Decommissioning the site by 2027, as planned by LAWMA, could cut associated methane emissions by 40 percent, from a baseline of approximately 17,100 tons per year to just 10,300 tons per year by 2030.

Exhibit 1. A screenshot from WasteMAP showing the methane mitigation potential of Olusosun dumpsite decommissioning in 2027 as estimated by WasteMAP’s SDST (blue curve showing the dumpsite decommissioning scenario; the orange curve is business as usual; the star represents an annualized methane emission rate estimated from the plume observations of the GHGSat satellite from October 2023 to September 2024 through SRON’s TWOS Initiative).

2. User accounts for scenario management

We’ve also introduced login functionality, allowing users to create accounts and save their SDST scenarios (Exhibit 2). Now, users can:

• Save multiple site scenarios on their personal dashboard
• Revisit, edit, or delete any saved scenarios
• Track and refine mitigation strategies over time

If you’d like to help improve baseline estimates, we encourage you to select “Yes” in the Share Data dropdown to share waste data with RMI. The WasteMAP team will contact you about the use of the waste data on our platform.

Exhibit 2. User dashboard for accessing saved scenarios

3. Improved City-Level Decision Support Tool (CDST)

We’ve made significant improvements to the CDST based on feedback from partners and users:

• Added a Food Waste Prevention slider to estimate the impact of upstream mitigation. Food waste decays faster than any other material at disposal sites, making it the leading source of landfill methane emissions. Preventing food waste is one of the most effective ways to cut these emissions, as it avoids methane generation at the source. It also extends the lifespan of disposal sites and brings other benefits, such as improving local food security through redistribution programs. This has become a growing priority for many municipalities. For example, Rio de Janeiro — a LOW-M participating jurisdiction — has a goal of reducing food loss and waste by 50 percent by 2030 as part of its plan for sustainable development and climate action. Using the newly added Food Waste Prevention slider on WasteMAP, we can show that significant methane mitigation can be achieved for Rio with a 50 percent reduction in food waste by 2030 (Exhibit 3).
• Introduced more granular modeling options for waste destinations, such as building new sanitary landfills with GCCS and sending all future waste there.

Exhibit 3. Methane mitigation potential of Rio’s food loss and waste prevention goal as estimated using WasteMAP’s CDST in June 2025 (the dark blue curve shows the food loss and waste reduction scenario, the light blue panel is for business as usual).

4. More satellite data becoming available on WasteMAP

We’ve enhanced WasteMAP’s interactive map layers to label all sites with satellite or aerial flyover observations using a different color and symbol (Exhibit 4). This makes it easier for users to access and explore observational data available on WasteMAP, as a first step to comparing observed emissions with modeled results. As of end of June 2025, the platform includes over 3,000 methane plumes attributed to disposal sites from the following instruments: GHGSat, provided through SRON’s Targeting Waste Emissions Observed from Space (TWOS) initiative, NASA’s EMIT satellite and Carbon Mapper’s air borne campaigns, streamed via Carbon Mapper’s Open Data Portal, and EnMAP satellite obtained from UNEP’s International Methane Emissions Observatory.

Exhibit 4. Sites with satellite and flyover observations are marked with darker orange and a satellite symbol.

Why this matters and what’s next

These new features mark a significant step toward localized, actionable methane mitigation in the waste sector. While full integration of satellite and other observational data into modeled emissions estimates is still in progress, the new SDST and a comprehensive observational data ingestion process bring us closer to that goal.

By combining “bottom-up” estimates (from site waste data) with top-down measurements from drones, satellites, or other platforms, WasteMAP aims to become a comprehensive waste methane emissions intelligence platform that can support:

• City and site-level methane mitigation planning
• State waste methane mitigation policy making
• Enhancement of national inventories and NDC planning processes
• Methane emissions evaluation for infrastructure investment portfolios and programmatic MRV for multilateral development banks
• Portfolio emission estimation for climate-aligned waste management companies

In the coming months, RMI’s WasteMAP team will lead updates to the Climate TRACE solid waste sector emissions data and release new site-level emissions estimates as part of the broader Climate TRACE coalition. We are also continuing our involvement in the LOW-M initiative, supporting jurisdictions on waste sector methane mitigation planning. With continued support from funders and partners, we are committed to delivering WasteMAP’s decision-support tools to the policymakers, financiers, and practitioners best positioned to drive meaningful, on-the-ground impact. We’re grateful to our collaborators at Earth Genome for their frontend development contributions that helped bring this feature release to life.

Join the Conversation

We invite you to join our upcoming webinar, where we’ll demo the new tools and hear from leading voices across waste, methane, data, philanthropy, and development finance. Speakers include representatives from RMI, Global Methane Hub, Carbon Mapper, and the Inter-American Development Bank.

Register for the July 10 webinar here

Help us turn methane data into climate action.

This article was informed by the contributions of Ebun Ayandele, Dr. Bram Maasakkers (SRON), Vera Vinson, Colm Quinn, Amanda Sessler. It would not have been possible without the generous support of Global Methane Hub and Google.org.

The post From Data to Action: WasteMAP’s New Features Empower Localized Methane Mitigation appeared first on RMI.

States play a pivotal role in whether industries stay competitive, controlling key aspects of permitting, utility regulation, economic development incentives, and much of the infrastructure planning that will determine whether industrial decarbonization succeeds. With the right mix of policy, investment, and planning, states can help enable a cleaner, more competitive industrial future while attracting new investment, creating high-quality jobs, and positioning themselves as hubs for clean manufacturing.

A recent RMI analysis of industrial decarbonization pathways in Washington offers a compelling case study. While the report focuses on Washington’s unique industrial landscape — wherein the industrial sector accounts for approximately 15 percent of the state’s energy-related carbon emissions — its findings and recommendations offer valuable lessons for states across the country.

The scale of the challenge — and the opportunity

Decarbonizing industry is not a one-size-fits-all endeavor. Each industry sector — whether cement, steel, food processing, or chemicals — has distinct emissions profiles, technology readiness levels, and economic constraints. But across the board, the transition will require significant investment, regulatory modernization, and a reliable supply of clean electricity.

RMI’s Washington analysis focused on a subset of industries dubbed “emissions-intensive, trade-exposed” (EITE) under the state’s Cap-and-Invest carbon market program. EITEs encompass about 40 facilities with high energy use, large emissions levels, and significant out-of-state competition for their products. The majority — about 68 percent — of EITE emissions come from refineries in the state.

RMI’s modeling found that existing and near-term technologies could reduce emissions from eight of the major EITE sectors (refineries, pulp and paper, cement, glass production, food processing, chemicals and hydrogen, iron and steel, and electronics) by 39 percent by 2035 and up to 91 percent by 2050. These reductions are achievable through a combination of energy and material efficiency and electrification in the early years, and low-carbon fuels, like green hydrogen, and carbon capture for the most difficult-to-abate emissions in the coming decades.

There are many ways to consider how much it will cost to invest in modernizing technologies, and who should pay those costs. Washington already benefits from a robust Cap-and-Invest program, in which its EITEs already benefit from $5.4 billion in value through 2035 (far greater than the $2.9 billion needed to reduce emissions in that period) and may also benefit further from the program’s future investments.

Furthermore, the marginal abatement cost for implementing these technologies ranges from -$150 to $500 per ton of CO₂e reduced, with efficiency improvements in particular offering the lowest — and often negative — abatement costs.

Decarbonization will drive electricity demand

One of the most striking findings from RMI’s Washington report is the projected increase in electricity demand. Full implementation of the analysis’s industrial decarbonization pathways would require an estimated additional 13,975 GWh of electricity annually by 2050 — a 65 percent increase in industrial electricity demand roughly equivalent to the current electricity consumption of over a million US homes. Washington’s net generation was 102,960 GWh in 2023.

This modeled increase reflects investments in electrifying process heat where feasible, integrating hydrogen for high‑temperature applications, and pairing residual fossil fuel use with point‑source carbon capture and storage to drive deep decarbonization across industry.

This underscores the need for states to proactively plan for and support grid upgrades and additional clean generation to meet the kinds of large-load electricity needs that come from some industrial decarbonization technologies. In particular, many industries follow investment and equipment upgrade cycles, meaning states risk missing a significant investment opportunity if grid availability is limited when those cycles turn over.

Policy levers states can pull

While federal incentives like those from the Inflation Reduction Act provide critical support, states have unique tools to accelerate industrial decarbonization that will be key as incentives face uncertainty at the federal level. Based on RMI’s analysis, there are several high-impact policy levers states can use to support industries’ investments to lower costs, increase product value, and otherwise enable and accelerate investment in modernizing technologies.

These policies fall into two categories — updated standards and regulations and state support –— with efforts around grid access, permitting, electricity rates, and direct financial supports like a green bank being most useful in aiding industrial decarbonization.

Looking ahead

Industrial decarbonization is not just a means to achieve state climate goals — it’s an economic opportunity. States that lead on this transition can establish an early-mover advantage that keeps them competitive, attracts investment, and creates high-quality jobs.

But leadership requires action. The next decade is critical for American industry to remain globally competitive while on a long-term path to full decarbonization. With smart policy, strategic investment, and a commitment to collaboration, states can help build an industrial sector that is not only cleaner, but stronger and more resilient.

Special thanks to Joe Fallurin, Allie Jobe, Mia Reback, Kayleigh Rubin, Jane Sadler for their contributions to this work.

The post How States Can Lead the Charge on Industrial Decarbonization appeared first on RMI.

Electric vehicle (EV) adoption is gaining serious momentum around the world. Multiple countries, including the United States, have already passed a passenger EV tipping point— when sales reach critical mass, after which adoption accelerates. In the United States, owning a light-duty EV is now cheaper than owning a gas-powered car over a vehicle’s lifespan. Thanks to ongoing savings from fuel, less maintenance, and other recurring benefits, RMI analysis determined that EVs save US drivers an estimated $1,000 or more annually.

The number of electric medium- and heavy-duty (MHD) trucks also continues to grow globally. MHD trucks’ purchase prices are trending toward parity with diesel, with some segments reaching parity as early as 2028. Given fleets are incredibly price sensitive, cost parity is the determining factor in their switch to electric.

In addition, battery recycling technology is improving. By 2040 we estimate that enough battery minerals will be in circulation to significantly reduce or possibly eliminate the need for additional mining — supporting electric transportation into perpetuity. This is in sharp contrast to the ongoing need to extract oil to fuel gas-powered vehicles. 

EV adoption continues to grow in multiple countries, passing tipping points.

More than 17 million new electric cars were sold worldwide in 2024, 20 percent of all cars purchased. Most of those cars (11 million) were sold in China, maintaining its multiyear lead as the largest EV market.

EV adoption is following an S-curve trajectory in many countries. Adoption of other innovative technologies like wind and solar have also followed S-curve trajectories — driven by factors that make technology adoption easier over time, such as learning curves, economies of scale, technology reinforcement, and social diffusion. One of the defining aspects of S-curves is that they accelerate — as markets reach certain thresholds, adoption rates typically increase. Exhibit 1 shows a high-level S-curve trend, and the different phases of the curve.

Exhibit 1

Exhibit 2 below shows when various countries have and will cross specific adoption thresholds. Presently, China is the only country that is transitioning into the late majority adoption phase, but most major markets have already crossed the tipping point for EV adoption acceleration (roughly 1–5 percent). The United States passed 1 percent adoption in 2017, 5 percent in 2022, and 10 percent in 2023.

Exhibit 2

Although the United States has passed critical adoption tipping points, it only saw 10 percent year-on-year growth in 2024 — in stark contrast to the 40 percent seen in 2023. As more and more countries continue along their EV S-curve, the United States risks being left behind if increased adoption slows. The United States needs to seize the narrowing window to establish itself as a leader in EV technology development, carry on supporting EV adoption, and realize cleaner air, household cost savings, and the other compound benefits of EVs.

The total cost of ownership for an EV compared to a gas-powered vehicle is falling and could save families real money.

Battery prices, economies of scale, and increasing market competition have made electric cars more affordable. While, in some countries EVs still have higher up-front costs than combustion engine vehicles, they typically have lower operating costs. This is due to EVs requiring less maintenance, and the cost of electricity for charging being less than fuel. In the United States, the gap in operating expenses is so significant that it more than offsets the higher up-front purchase price of an EV.

Exhibit 3 shows the significant annual savings the average household would see from driving an EV instead of an internal combustion engine car, and how these savings will grow in the next five years. This is an important metric to track because as it becomes more affordable to purchase and operate an EV, the vehicles will become more appealing to a larger portion of the market.

Exhibit 3

The annual savings translate to real savings for US families, as shown in Exhibit 4.

Exhibit 4

Electric medium- and heavy-duty trucks are approaching cost parity with diesel.

Trucking has long been considered one of the harder-to-transition sectors of the economy. Truck fleets compete on price and so are very sensitive to cost increases. Electric MHD trucks today are more expensive than their diesel counterparts, in large part because MHD truck batteries make up much of the overall vehicle price. Historically, MHD batteries have been more expensive per kilowatt than the batteries in light-duty vehicles, largely due to more significant design and testing needs, and reduced economies of scale.

But the market for electric trucks is accelerating globally and will soon erase the cost premium for electric trucks. The number of electric truck models is growing in all major markets — there are now more than 100 electric MHD truck models available in the United States, China, and Europe. As the market expands, manufacturing efficiencies will drive down costs and truck battery prices are expected to converge with general vehicle battery costs in the next five years. Battery price drops will hasten the arrival of price parity for electric trucks. This point of price parity represents a fundamental shift in how fleets will think about decarbonization.

Exhibit 5

What this EV adoption means for mining battery minerals.

In one year, the world extracts 40 percent more oil than the total weight of all the ore needed to electrify the world’s entire transportation system.

Currently both EVs and gas-powered vehicles require mined and extracted resources — EVs require minerals for batteries and gas-powered vehicles require gasoline derived from oil. Gas-powered vehicles require fuel on a regular basis, whereas making a vehicle battery only requires resources to be mined one time.

Lithium batteries are already largely recycled and even today more than 90 percent of lithium and 95 percent of nickel and cobalt are recovered from recycled batteries. As battery recycling, which has the potential to reduce both costs and environmental impacts, continues to improve and costs come down, there will be even less need for newly mined battery minerals. Mineral recovery rates are improving, and recycled minerals are meeting or exceeding standards for virgin minerals. The electrification of the global transportation system will require a total of approximately 125 million tons of battery minerals by 2040. After reaching this equilibrium, robust battery recycling can significantly reduce the amount of newly mined materials required. If we can combine that with better batteries, more efficient material use, and more efficient transportation systems, there could be enough battery minerals in circulation to support the battery supply chain in perpetuity.

Exhibit 6

Electrification is happening all around the world, and advances in the battery recycling industry have the potential to reduce both costs and environmental impacts. This is a critical moment for the United States to decide whether it will compete on the global stage or be locked into obsolete technology with non-renewable fuel sources. Fortunately, there are still opportunities for the United States to embrace vehicle electrification. The total cost of owning EVs is decreasing, and electric trucks are anticipated to reach cost parity with gas- and diesel-fueled trucks in the next few years. Both dynamics should support increased adoption.

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1. EV sales are at a record high, while combustion vehicle sales continue to fall. More than one in four car sales will be electric this year, including more than half of sales in China — despite US projections being cut in half due to recent policy.

2. EVs are increasingly global, as annual sales more than doubled in Brazil and Africa. Thanks to affordable vehicle models and targeted incentives, EV sales shares are growing fast — with Vietnam outpacing Europe, Thailand eclipsing the United States, and Brazil outperforming Japan.

3. Low-cost charging is a key enabler. While charging is generally far cheaper than gasoline, public fast charging is more expensive in the United States and Europe. Smart policy is crucial for managing charging costs and providing broader access.

4. Battery innovation is making EVs increasingly desirable. Leading batteries can charge more than halfway in five minutes, and more progress could be on the horizon with safer long-range solid-state chemistries.

5. EVs are reducing oil demand at an exponential rate. Every time EVs save another million barrels of oil, it is set to happen in half the time. From early two-wheelers to current cars and future trucks, all vehicle segments can play a role in reducing pollution and increasing security.

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